Current Rates (Source data last updated EOD Dec 30, 2025)
• 30-Year Conventional: 6.140% (↑ +0.4 bps)
• 30-Year FHA: 5.979% (↑ +1.9 bps)
• 30-Year VA: 5.707% (↓ −1.8 bps)
• 30-Year DSCR: ~6.64% (est., ~50 bps above 30Y conventional)
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.12% (↓ −0.8 bps)
• Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.64% (unchanged)
What Changed
Marginal movements up and down, with no significant movement ahead of the new year. This is expected as trading activity is light during the holidays.
FedWatch Momentum (Jan 28 FOMC)
• 85.1% probability of no change (↑ +1.2 pp)
• 14.9% probability of a 25 bp cut (↓ −1.2 pp)
• 0% probability of a hike (unchanged)
Markets quietly pulled back on near-term easing expectations.
January: What Markets Are Watching
• Jan 9 (8:30am ET): Jobs Report (payrolls & unemployment)
• Jan 13 (8:30am ET): CPI Inflation
• Jan 28 (2:00pm ET): Fed decision (FOMC)
What’s ahead
The goal of the Rate Brief is to be your trusted source of rate information for borrowing, saving, and refinance decisions. We rely on readers to help guide the direction of our publication. With this in mind, I would like to ask for your help with answering a quick question.
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Your support is appreciated! Happy New Year!