Executive Summary
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN RATES. President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. He is expected to become Fed Chair in May. Gold and Silver prices collapsed but rates remained stable. The spread between the 10-yr and 30 yr mortgage narrowed slightly.
Trump Says Fed Chair Warsh “certainly wants to cut rates.”
Consumer Mortgage Rates
30-Year Conforming: 6.066% ↓ −0.006
15-Year Conforming: 5.412% ↑ +0.047
30-Year Jumbo: 6.246% ↓ −0.061
30-Year FHA: 5.987% ↑ +0.052
Investor Mortgage Rates
30-Year DSCR: 5.875% (assumes 75% LTV, 1.6 DSCR, 780+ FICO)
Benchmarks
10-Year Treasury: 4.241% ↑ +0.014
Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.64%
Fed Funds Target Range: 3.50–3.75%
Sources: Optimal Blue OBMMI | Last updated Jan 30, 2026, CNBC
Fed Rate Cut Probabilities
January 28: Probability of a rate cut: 0.0% (as predicted, there was no January rate cut.)
March 18: Probability of a rate cut: 14.8% (↓ −0.6 pp vs last week)
June 17: Probability of a rate cut: 68.3% (↑ +7.6 pp vs last week)
Takeaway: Markets trimmed early-cut odds slightly but increased confidence that easing begins by mid-2026. Sources: (CME FedWatch Tool, updated).
New Fed Chair: Kevin Warsh
On January 30, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. A former Fed governor from 2006–2011, Warsh built his reputation as an inflation hawk. More recently, he has argued in a move Dovish manor and Trump believes he will cut rates. Warsh will still be one vote among twelve on the FOMC. The bigger open question is Fed independence under a president who has shown little restraint in pressuring the central bank.
On the news, silver plunged 30% and gold 9% in a single day sending a shockwave through the markets. The prevailing narrative is that the sell off in commodities was a reaction to Warsh’s reputation as a hawk. But this is inconsistent with interest rates and inflation expectations remaining anchored and the futures markets pricing in greater certainty of a rate cut in June. It is more likely that gold and silver values were being driven by uncertainty and that uncertainty is now decreasing. As uncertainty decreases with the announcement, there is less of a need for silver and Gold to act as a hedge against irresponsible financial and monetary policy.
Warsh will still be one vote among twelve on the FOMC. The bigger open question is Fed independence under a president who has shown little restraint in pressuring the central bank.
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